What to do about Taiwan?

Should the US go to war with China over Taiwan? I have two degrees, one in History and one in International Relations, and this one has me a little worried. Basically, we're on the verge of a new cold war, one between China and the US. China has slowly and quietly become an economic and military superpower while the US has seen it's position weakened for a number of reasons, recently accelerated by the war on terrorism.

For those of you who don't know, China just passed a resolution allowing for military force to bring Taiwan back into the fold IF Taiwan tries to declare formal independence and sovereignty. The US has had on it's books for decades a Congressional proclamation (not sure if it's an official "law") to protect Taiwan from any outside aggression (this came from the last cold war).

Should the US allow China to take back Taiwan like the British did with Hong Kong. Taiwan was once part of China. Or should the US step in to try and fight a war, that in my opinion, it can't at present win.

I think the US should not go to war with China over Taiwan: 1). Because we'll probably get our ass kicked and weaken our already stretched-thin military and homeland defences, 2). the situation could possibly escalate to the brink of a nuclear war and 3). based on #1 and #2, it's not totally a bad thing. Yes, everybody should have the opportunity to live in a free society with free elections, but my understanding is the Chinese don't have it too bad. Their hybrid Communist-Capitalist economic structure has had limited success where most other pure "communist" societies have failed (oh yeah. There is Cuba.). I also believe that the US's pure "Capitalist" economic model will eventually fail us. We're already starting to see signs of this.

China basically just wants back what was once theirs. It's not the same as Germany taking France and Poland or Russia taking Eastern Europe. China's not going to enslave the population of Taiwan and make them pyramids to Deng Jao Peng. Our (the US) grandiose ideas about protecting democracy wherever is all well and good, but looking at the current state of affairs, I think the US needs to walk away from this one.

Next week's discussion:

Compare and contrast the US/China dynamics over Taiwan versus the US/China dynamics over North Korea and yes, there will be a test on this.

My official take on the situation:




(should it even be a question?)

Typical Canadian response.

If the US was shooting straight down the line and had to follow their perogatives then they should be backing up Taiwan 100%.. However common sense should prevail and agressive talks will occur but a peaceful solution should be found..

Taiwan has been a bomb waiting to go off, and no one wins with this one. We will not let it go as we have such strong economic and political ties with them and Taiwan has been a thorn the Chinese side for decades. Neither side will back down, and our strained ties with them don't help the situation much either.

I really would have to study this more before I form a good opinion on the subject. I do know that the competition for resources in particular oil and China's voracious appetite for it might bring a situation like this to a breaking point

[font=&quot]In all there is no good news with these developments but I would like to hear other people opinion on this….
[/font]

The Crusher said:

Typical Canadian response.

Click to expand...

Typical American Response

Since this is the first I have heard about the subject (since the media only focuses on Iraq and the death their),based upon what The Crusher has said, and common sense, we (the US), should NOT go to war. As he said, our military is stretched WAY to thin as it is, and since our economy is getting at least somewhat back on track, it would be a bad idea.

However, I feel with our current president, that we would in fact do this. I do not think Bush is an incredibly stupid man, but I feel he has this idea that he NEEDS to be the one to spread democracy all over the world, and to be the worlds' savior of some kind. SO I feel we should not go, but that if things worsen, then we probably will.

I wonder if you fellas waaaay over there know what you are talking about over here ....

To go to war with China is to begin WWIII. Reason is simple. The entire East Asian community respects China's soveignty and are bound my treaty and agreement to side China in any event. This includes South Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Phillippines and even Australia and New Zealand.

Taiwan has no right to do what they intend to and to make matters worse, the way they are going about it is all wrong. The party lacking diplomacy in this issue is not China and Taiwan is behaving like renegades with a higher cause. The bigger pictures is; the majority of the population are not interested in parting with Motherland China. Its a small over-zealous bunch of politicians-in-power who want this change. Their proposed style of government will not work with East Asians as has been proven in Cambodia and Myanmar and earllier on by PPI. And because Asia can ill afford another recession because of war, Taiwan stands alone in its cause (save North Korea; only God knows what they are up to) and will be unable to defend itself from a full Chinese onslaught.

Should America or any other nation take up arms alongside the Taiwanese, the rammifications will be more than bloodshed. Economies will go to hell and alliances as we know it will be shredded. BTW, the bloodshed as mentioned will mostly be blood shed by Americans. Think about it. East Asia. Its a big fucking place. If Vietnam kicked ass then, .... nuff said. Plus America doesn't want an excuse for the Middle Eastern countries (also Asia) to ally themselves to East Asia now, do they?

This convo is moot. America best keep their noses out of this one.

That gives me a better idea of what is going on. Hopefully, the US decides not to go over there and cause WWIII. If it is just a small group, hopefully that group will die down and this will all be done away with. Thank You Conman for some more info on this.

the US SHOULD stand by the republic of china, commonly called taiwan... there seems to be a lack of history here, so allow me to fill in a few blanks... any corrections or amplification would be welcome, but i believe i have the salient points... in ww2, the island of formosa was taken and held by the japanese, until American troops took it back... post ww2, mao came to power in what is called china, and the government fled to formosa... the island was renamed taiwan, and the government of the republic of china, led by chiang kai shek, was installed there, where it has been a strong ally of the US since... the nation we all call china is actually named the peoples republic of china, and has been since mao and the long march... what we have here both sides claiming ownership of the others land...

i am certain that this very scenario has been wargamed to death by the US military, primarily the navy, and the current policy of militarily defending the interests of the roc lies with the favorable outcome of said wargames... if i am not mistaken, there has been at least one carrier battle group (more firepower than most nations can call forth) in the region since the prc started making threats...

one or two carriers can provide a lot of planes, but not enough, even combined with a very capable roc air force, to turn back the entire prc air force... this is simply a numbers game, which the prc will win every time it is the only factor... the prc can also hit the roc with missiles/rockets, BUT, i believe it to be incapable of a successful invasion... the plan (peoples liberation army navy) is largely a brown water force, lacks and signifigant number of large ships, and should be easily destroyed by the US and roc navies, should it come to that... numbers are again on the side of the plan, but this time another factor is present--time... it takes a number of hours to cross the strait of taiwan, and in this time, the plan would be most out of its element, and therefore vulnerable...

conman, most of the bleeding in this hypothetical war would be done by the pla (peoples liberation army) and plan, UNLESS there was some kind of ground campaign on mainland china... as the agreement is for the DEFENSE of the sovereignty of the peoples republic of china, i dont see this as a liklihood... end result, the plan is nearly destroyed completely, the republic of china loses a number of lives in bombing and missile/rocket attacks, along with property damage, and the US would probably lose a few planes, and unlikely but possibly some ships (or even more unlikely, submarines)... also, vietnam was a serious of battles won by the US... the politicians didnt allow that war to be fought properly, or to be won... i hope this never comes to pass, but if it does, i am confident in my nations capabilities...

if the prc wants to risk losing most of its military, it might make a move toward the roc... the numbers required for a successful invasion require this decision to be made, and if it goes badly for them, as i believe it would, the prc risks becoming a large nation unable to secure or defend itself... THAT is a hell of a gamble...

cman said:

Typical American Response

Click to expand...

HA! That was awesome.

Bottom Line... If a fullscale War starts up, we're all fucked.. AND that will be over one piss ant little country... How fucking stubborn are all the worlds governments..

Good point Cable. One thing the game masters didn't take into consideration is the lack of co-operation from the other Asian Countries and even worse, anti-American Allies in the form of these said nations.

My bottom line, why does America have to poke their noses into everybody's business? In this particular case, what has China done to America to justify their participation in defending Taiwan?

All Asia is asking is for America to mind their own business and let China settle their differences with Taiwan. Stay out of it. It is over righteous opinions, not unlike cable's, that start wars coz of the confidence in victory, no matter the price to others. Instead of exploring other means of settlement, the mind immediately goes to battle possibilities and capabilities and probable outcomes. Why are Americans, for the most part, such war mongers?

Given that I spent a year living in Taiwan and going to school there, I'm a bit worried. I really like that place. It's absolutely amazing. I don't really care if it's a part of China or its own independent government, I just want the country and its peoples to remain safe and unharmed.

When Quebec wanted separation from Canada the US stayed out of it. The US has yet to intervene in the struggles in Ireland. The US has not jumped into the mess in Chechnya.

There is a common theme here, don't fuck with your trade partners. George Bush and the American people are counting on keeping 1.2 billion Chinese as potential customers. Starting WWIII and the first nuclear winter would be a bad way to kick off future trade agreements. I mean, they turn a blind eye to the slaughter of Tibetans by the hands of Chinese invaders, so why start with Taiwan? It is time to let the US soldiers have a few months off a year anyway.

Well put Rev.

Conman said:

Why are Americans, for the most part, such war mongers?

Click to expand...

Most americans ARE NOT war mongers, if you take a poll of the country, most of us don't want to be in any of the wars we are already in, but we have an overzealous President who thinks he can fix the world in his time left in office.

He is a Texan, and he wants to ride in like the Cowboy on the white horse and save the world from itself.

Do I think he will make us go to another war we don't belong in? Probably, will it be a huge mistake to do so? hell yeah... btw.. has he even found Osama yet? I think he should finish what he already started and clean up his "war toys" in Iraq & Afganistan before making another mess.

i forgot to add something to my first post here... a critical word that very much applies to this argument is "appeasement." each and every argument being used here against US intervention in the unfortunate scenario of a prc attack on the roc was used in the 1930s in europe... end result of "just minding ones own business"--a nazi germany with ambitions of global domination... what would have happened had the rest of the world NOT allowed hitler to break germanys post ww1 agreements??? how many MILLIONS might not have died in ww2?? appeasement is a losing game whenever it is tried, as it only encourages future transgressions... one saddam hussein is modern proof of this..

quebec wanting out of canada can not be put into any manner of military context... personally, i hope that DOES happen, but my reasons for wanting this are rather off topic, and will not be explored here at this time... bottom line, quebec does not have the capabily or the stated intent of military aggression against anyone...

the case of ireland is also in a different league... like quebec, it is a seperatist issue, one which, if you havent noticed, hasnt really been much of an issue lately anyway... ireland, more specifically the ira, have historically been the aggressors in that squabble, and in case you arent aware, is massively outgunned... the prudent view is to let the UK handle it, as they are well equipped to do so...

when saddam hussein ordered his troops to conquer kuwait, was the proper response to let it be?? was that "just a matter between iraq and kuwait??" should one nation be allowed to conquer any of its weaker nations, just because it can??

the prc is a giant when compared to the roc... in a straight up fight, the prc would win every time.... the involvement of the US has kept this from becoming a shooting war to this point...

conman, it is tyrants who start wars, NOT people like me that champion the sovereignty of peaceful nations... the roc may be "just some little island in asia" that the US should forget about, but then again, perhaps singapore is as well... if the prc decided that it had a claim to singapore, would you also demand that the US stay out of it, that it was "an asian thing?" what you are asking is that an entire nation surrender its identity, many of its populace be killed or imprisoned, and that its government simply surrender its power... i see this as short sighted and terribly naive.. IF the prc is allowed to conquer the roc, rest assured there WILL be some other nation that is next..

regarding allies, aside from basing in several nations in the western pacific, there is little military help to be had from anyone except perhaps Australia... the simple reason is that most asian nations simply dont have much in the way of a navy... in ww2, the US, with the assistance of Australia, kicked japan off of each and every island they took over, leaving them with what they started with.... without much other help... the ally thing is far overblown, and only a valid argument when a nation lacks the capability of force projection, which the US does not...

what is to be gained from allowing the prc to absorb the roc?? this is the position you are advocating, along with some others here, kindly defend it... by the way, "it isnt Americas business" wont fly as a valid argument when one nation conquers another... you advocate appeasement, where is the benefit in this??

we Americans are not war mongers... we much prefer peace... in peace, prosperity prospers, and freedom reigns... free societies do not start wars for this very reason... last i checked, the only war my nation has ever started was the one for independence from the tyranny of king george...

Reverend James said:

When Quebec wanted separation from Canada the US stayed out of it.

Click to expand...

Ha! No offence Rev, but thats the dumbest comparision I've heard. It wasn't like there would be a war because Quebec wanted to separate. The only time America wants to intervein is when there's a possible hostile situation.

We all know...the american government knows best and they have the most toys (weapons of mass destruction) <sarcasm for those who didn't pick it up> This is just another situation for them to get involved in something they have no business in and have the world hate them even more.

...Geeze...and all the american citizens on this forum wonder why the rest of the world holds so much animosity towards them. Fuck with someone like China, and expect way more 9-11's....

jessicajoanne said:

btw.. has he even found Osama yet? I think he should finish what he already started and clean up his "war toys" in Iraq & Afganistan before making another mess.

Click to expand...

IF... Osama is alive, and I believe he is not, Bush would never let on. If you had a pill that would cure all cancers in one dose would you market it or water it down so that everyone has to keep taking your "medicine" to keep it at bay? If you are a greedy businessman/President then you do the latter. The Republican party needs a Boogeyman to continually fund their war machine and pad their own pockets by driving up oil prices.

singhr, putting "no offense" in front of a statement does not allow you to call it down witout offending (although, this is the internet and opinions do not offend me, I just have issue with conventional discourse). Why is Taiwan the side that America has to assume as an ally? Maybe Taiwan is China's Ireland as far as the government goes. And had Quebec turned violent the US still would not have interevened. If you think that world policy is not economically based then you are ignorant to the grander scheme of things. No one conquers for land, they conquer for wealth. In this case they abstain for wealth.