Week 2 Picks (Got this from TSN website, what the hell they were free, and Schultz knows his football, played in the NFL and in the CFL with the Toronto Argonauts.)
1:00 p.m. Sunday, September 19th
St. Louis Rams @ Atlanta Falcons -2
When you think about it, Michael Vick is a very inexperienced quarterback. After missing so much time last year, last week’s game at San Francisco was like starting a career all over again. Vick will be better at home this week. Having said that, the Rams have beaten Atlanta in the last seven games by an average of 37 to 12. I also like the way Stephen Jackson can take the load off Marshall Faulk. Coach Mike Martz is anticipating a decline in Faulk just due to age – nothing else. Jackson fits that role very well. The only way to match Vick step-for-step is speed on defence. The Rams, even without Lovie Smith, still have team speed.
Schultz Picks: St. Louis Rams
Cleveland Browns @ Dallas Cowboys -4
Under Bill Parcells, the Dallas Cowboys do not lose two games in a row. Yes, the 35 points and five touchdowns by Culpepper last week is a concern; however, I just can’t see a loss two weeks in a row. Overlooked in the Minnesota loss was Vinny Testeverde’s efficiency with everybody. Keyshawn Johnson, Antonio Bryant and Terry Glenn all had good games and Cleveland’s secondary is susceptible to big plays. Also, what crushed Dallas last week was a 22-play (that’s right, 22-plays) drive that resulted in no points. That was the turning point of the game and I don’t think it will happen again. Jeff Garcia is a solid, positive influence on other players and Butch Davis has a better team, but Parcells’ pressure points hit players hard after a loss.
Schultz Picks: Dallas Cowboys
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers -9
Green Bay all the way. This Packer team may have the best offensive line in football. I know I said that about Kansas City, but the Chiefs miss John Tait. Ahman Green has such a crystal-clear understanding about blocking patterns and the available moment they allow. Now Green Bay this week will be stronger with Mike McKenzie back, but weaker without Grady Jackson at DT if he’s unavailable. But even if Chicago scores early, you can’t show me a better fourth quarter quarterback than Brett Favre. Also, Green Bay’s dominance of Chicago is remarkable. The Packers have covered eight of nine games and this one is the home opener. Enough said.
Schultz Picks: Green Bay Packers
Carolina Panthers @ Kansas City Chiefs -6
This is a very interesting game because both teams are coming off significant losses. Carolina looked very average on defence vs. Green Bay, which was very surprising considering the talent that is still present. Now they face a Kansas City team that did have offensive success with Priest Holmes and the offensive line working together. You can’t under value the broken leg of Carolina’s top receiver, Steve Smith. He was the No. 1 playmaker and, due to his absence, defences can concentrate on Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster all the more. This will be a back to the basics game for Carolina. When things get tough, John Fox expects his team to get together. Both teams need a bounce-back game. Kansas City will use that Green Bay film to win and cover.
Schultz Picks: Kansas City Chiefs
Washington Redskins -3 @ NY Giants
The Redskins didn’t just beat Tampa Bay last week 16-10, they dominated the Bucs. Tampa Bay had only ten first downs last week, and only 30 rushing yards. Also, everyone knows Joe Gibbs will protect his quarterback. Priority No. 1 for Washington is no sacks allowed, which is a drastic change from the Spurrier years. Defensively for Washington, they will be after Kurt Warner, who is a similar pocket quarterback to Brad Johnson. Watch out, New York Giants, because this is a much better Redskins’ team coming to the Meadowlands. A key to their improvement is defensive co-ordinator Gregg Williams. He developed a top defence in Tennessee, did it again in Buffalo and now seems to have the Redskins on the right track.
Schultz Picks: Washington Redskins
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens -3.5
I was surprised that Baltimore lost to Cleveland last week 20-3. For Pittsburgh this would be an excellent opportunity to put Baltimore two games behind them in the race to win the AFC North. The quarterbacks in this one could make the difference. Kyle Boller is still trying to live up to expectations and Tommy Maddox is just trying to keep Ben Roethlisberger on the bench. I love that urgency factor with Maddox. The Steelers will also be able to evaluate the run defence film from the Cleveland game. Historically, Pittsburgh plays excellent run defence for a 3-4 team and, as always, the challenge will be to shut down Jamal Lewis and get Boller into as many third and long situations as possible. There are a lot of good receivers in this game for Pittsburgh with Plaxico Burress, Hines Ward and Antwaan Randle El. The Ravens will try to contain them with Deion Sanders, Chris McAlister and Gary Baxter (if healthy). It feels like a field-goal game to me.
Schultz Picks: Pittsburgh Steelers
Houston Texans @ Detroit Lions -3
Two things stand out about the Houston loss to San Diego last week. Domanick Davis fumbled twice and the Texans allowed San Diego to convert too many third and long situations. This will be an interesting game because Dre Bly may not play and Charles Rogers is out with a broken collarbone. Also, Detroit managed only 77 yards on 30 carries on the ground vs. Chicago. If Chicago can shut down Detroit on the ground, so can Houston. I just like this Texas team. Dom Capers is an above average head coach and the team is young and ambitious. I know Detroit plays much better at home, but did you also know that Detroit has not had a 100-yard receiver in the last 17 games?
Schultz Picks: Houston Texans
Denver Broncos -3 @ Jacksonville Jaguars
I have to be honest here – of all the teams of Week 1, Denver may have been the most impressive. The 156 yards by Quentin Griffin were well earned and the depth at receiver gives Denver consistent big-play possibilities. When they play Jacksonville they will be playing one of the NFL’s better defensive football teams. The front seven of Jacksonville is as good as any, so I anticipate less than another 156 yards for Griffin. But the real key to Bronco success is bootlegging after having success on the run. It buys Jake Plummer so much extra time and gives the receivers double-move opportunity. After Week 1, Jacksonville is ranked 29th on offence. Byron Leftwich looked uncomfortable under the centre. Maybe some shotgun would loosen him up.
Schultz Picks: Denver Broncos
San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints -7.5
This is a difficult game to assess because of the impending hurricane in the New Orleans area. Still, I think San Francisco can keep it close. In the second half last week, the 49ers held Michael Vick and Atlanta to 39 yards in the last seven possessions. Maybe Atlanta is not that good, or maybe San Francisco is better than originally thought – it’s too early to tell. When you look at talent on offence vs. talent of offence, New Orleans should win easy. Aaron Brooks, Joe Horn, Donte Stallworth vs. Ken Dorsey, Brandon Lloyd, Cedrick Wilson and Kevan Barlow. Only Barlow is a proven player for San Francisco. This is one of those games where the ½ point over the seven is too tempting not to use to an advantage. If it was six or less, I’d take New Orleans to win. But everything is so close in the NFL and Dorsey has played in high-level pressure games. New Orleans wins, but San Francisco keeps it close.
Schultz Picks: San Francisco 49ers
4:05 p.m. Sunday, September 19th
Seattle Seahawks -3 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The big question in this game will be the physical health of running back Shaun Alexander. If he plays and is not too physically limited, then Seattle could win by a touchdown. This is the second long-distance road trip in as many weeks for Seattle. Last week they were in Louisiana and this week they are in Florida. If the Seahawks can produce a win on Sunday, their next two games are in the NFC West (San Francisco and St. Louis) with a bye week in between. Seattle has good corners, an underrated offensive line and an aggressive quarterback in Matt Hasselbeck. When they look at the Redskins-Bucs film from last week, they will see ball control to the max, but Seattle is more of a big play team. It is Tampa Bay that must adjust. Tampa Bay has lost four of five vs. Seattle and the Seahawks have never lost in Raymond James Stadium. The Bucs will be hungry, but Seattle has too much perimeter talent.
Schultz Picks: Seattle Seahawks
New England Patriots -8 @ Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals did play the Rams tough last week in St. Louis, but over their history, St. Louis and Arizona have played each other consistently. That familiarity and a couple of Rams turnovers kept the game close. This game could be close when you consider that nine of New England’s last 14 wins have been by less than seven points. But this is the first time quarterback Josh McCown has seen this New England defence. If he stays interception-free, I will be surprised. This is a dangerous game for the Patriots because Arizona is a tough team to get up for, especially in the heat. But Bill Bellichick has had ten days to get ready. A shutout is a possibility.
Schultz Picks: New England Patriots
NY Jets -3 @ San Diego Chargers
There are two great running backs in this game - Curtis Martin for the Jets and LaDainian Tomlinson for the Chargers – which kind of evens things out. As for the quarterback match-up between New York’s Chad Pennington and San Diego’s Drew Brees, I’ll take Pennington. Last week Pennington picked apart the Bengals’ secondary and had a couple of key dropped footballs. I think he can do it again against the Chargers’ secondary. Also, sometimes running backs have big days against teams that run 3-4 defences – not so much on the outside but at the interior point of attack. San Diego is a better team: Antonio Gates at tight end, Lorenzo Neal at full back and the two cornerbacks, Quentin Jammer and Sammy Davis. That said, I just like the ball control of Pennington.
Schultz Picks: NY Jets
Buffalo Bills @ Oakland Raiders -3.5
A lot depends on how Buffalo responds from the last play in the Jacksonville loss. If they look at it as a building block there is no problem. However, if team doubt creeps in then that is another state of mind. Every season has one or two games that dictate the season. Buffalo doesn’t want last week to be the one. The Bills should be able to make Oakland one-dimensional on offence. The Raiders are still an unknown football team - older in some places, young in others. Buffalo does create good balance on offence, but on defence they should keep it close.
Schultz Picks: Buffalo Bills
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans -1
I remember last year’s Tennessee/Indianapolis game in Tennessee where the Colts were pretty much turnover free. The Titans were the opposite. Both teams will have plenty of preparation time. For the Colts, ten days in between games, while the Titans got an extra day due to Hurricane Ivan. The key in this game will be the effectiveness of Edgerrin James. In the two games last year James totaled 217 yards. Not bad, considering the Titans had only 146. But as painful as it is to admit, Chris Brown is a better running back than Eddie George. Now McNair only completed nine passes last week for 73 yards, but all Miami has is that defensive football team. All the pressure is on them and I bet you they will respond all season long. I know Jeff Fisher will communicate the urgency of this game. The Titans still have to play in Indianapolis on December 5th. At the end of the season, as early as it is, this game will go a long way to the AFC South winner.
Schultz Picks: Tennessee Titans
8:30 p.m. Sunday, September 19th
Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals -5
When was the last time the Bengals were favoured on a national telecast on a Sunday night? The success of Miami quarterback Jay Fiedler depends on a good running back. Without Ricky Williams, the Dolphins have to find one. New running back Lamar Gordon has a great opportunity to establish himself as a top back, because he will probably be The Guy in Miami for the rest of the season. Also, he plays a Bengal team that gave up 218 total rushing yards against the Jets. If Miami is to win this one, it will be on defence, and as an organization everyone knows it. Miami is very simple – especially compared to New England - but they react well, run well and stay disciplined. I expect the Dolphins defence to show up and play exceptionally well.
Schultz Picks: Miami Dolphins
9:00 p.m. Monday, September 20th
Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles -3.5
The Eagles may be three-time NFC title-game losers, but they are again Super Bowl contenders. Two questions about the Eagles’ offence were answered against the Giants: 1. Could Terrell Owens be a part of a system of ball distribution – a McNabb strength – or would he overshadow everyone else and change the system? Well, Freddie Mitchell, L.J. Smith and Chad Lewis all had significant contributions catching against the Giants. Owens will fit in just fine. 2. Could Mighty Mite Brian Westbrook be the feature back? Well, all 5-foot-8 and 200 pounds ran like 6-foot-2 and 230 pounds in Game one. The Eagles have a balance of run-pass effectiveness. Minnesota is a better team already this year. A higher level of confidence was obvious in the way they attacked the Dallas receivers, but Dallas had 27 first downs and 352 passing yards. You can ball control against the Vikings’ defence.
Schultz Picks: Philadelphia Eagles
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