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Old 01-25-2006, 02:32 PM   #1
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Well, we've been starting to discuss this issue in other threads so it seemed to be a good time to start one of its own (seeing as how the implications could be of major consequence for everyone).

Lets start here:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060125/...dia_us_nuclear

It seems the US is threatening to squelch some nuclear deal with India if India doesn't support the US in referring the Iranians to the UN security council.
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Old 01-26-2006, 02:54 PM   #2
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India's response:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060126/...dia_us_nuclear

Unintended consequences?
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Old 01-31-2006, 12:04 PM   #3
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Iran's response:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4665086.stm

A quote:

"Any move to involve the UN Security Council in the row over Iran's nuclear programme would mean the end of diplomacy, a key official has said.

The warning, issued by chief Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani, follows an agreement by key powers to report Tehran to the council."
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Old 01-31-2006, 01:48 PM   #4
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That little fucker over there is one crazy ass bastard. I say we sale a few long range bombers to our little jew buddies and let them take care of this.
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Old 01-31-2006, 02:42 PM   #5
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Tex,

That is certainly one solution that some people are suggesting. But, if we do, watch oil jump to $100 per barrel (if not higher) overnight. If Iran retaliates by sinking a few tankers in the middle of the Straits of Hormuz (thus cutting off most Middle East oil) watch it jump to $200 per barrel (roughly).

Granted, the guy is a loon. But a loon that feels he has the west over a barrel (literally).
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Old 02-01-2006, 01:42 PM   #6
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Well, the rhetoric certainly isn't cooling off:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4668792.stm

A few quotes:

"Speaking to crowds at Bushehr, the site of his country's first nuclear reactor, Mr Ahmadinejad said: "I am telling those fake superpowers that the Iranian nation became independent 27 years ago and... on the nuclear case it will resist until fully achieving its rights."

He added: "Our nation cannot step back because of the bullying policies of some countries in the world.""

"In his speech, Mr Ahmadinejad also countered criticism by the US president over Iran's human rights record, accusing Mr Bush of hypocrisy.

"Those whose arms are stained up to the elbow with the blood of other nations are now accusing us of violating human rights and freedoms," Mr Ahmadinejad told cheering crowds.

"The Iranian nation is the standard-bearer of freedom and human rights."

Mr Bush in his State of the Union address described Iran as a nation "held hostage by a small clerical elite that is isolating and repressing its people"."
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Old 02-03-2006, 02:41 PM   #7
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it isnt a matter of if, it is a matter of when.. the only question is who will fire the first shot--and will it end in a mushroom cloud??

tex, the israelis have all the range they need to hit iran and return home... the entire middle east is short range for todays combat aircraft...

i am looking forward to seeing how this plays out in the house of impotence (the un)... can that bunch of hypocritical cowards grow a pair, or will this merely be the latest justification for disbanding it as worthless??

personally, i think iran is all bluster and no substance... they will eventually cave and give up the goods, though not because of the un... the iranian military wasnt as good as iraqs (pre-war), and the sensible move is to keep US troops outside its borders.. that said, i also believe that there will be at least one strike made against irans nuke facilities, and that it is entirely possible iran may initiate it or retaliate against it..
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Old 02-03-2006, 04:11 PM   #8
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B-52's and B-2's on Diego Garcia and our fast attacks in the gulf have Iran in checkmate. They know they are there, sitting, waiting for Iran to make one mistake.

Isreal has deployed 2 of their dolphin class subs within striking distance of Iran since their F-15's and F-16's lack the range to carry out a strike without refueling. The F-16 and F-15 have range of about 7500 miles which would be enough if the mission was just to depoly air to surface missles which would only damage not destroy the objective. That's where the dolphin class fun devils come in with their 16 long range Harpoon (500 lb warhead) surface to surface missles with an effective range of 900 miles (thanks to our over the horizon weapons system).
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Old 02-03-2006, 04:39 PM   #9
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Tex,

I don't think there is much doubt that Iran is militarily at a disadvantage against the US and Israel. The problem is, what will happen in the rest of the Muslim world if either of us do attack? More than likely, Irans first move will be to block the Straits of Hormuz, thus cutting off a high percentage of Middle East oil (Saudi oil included) and sending oil prices well above $100 per barrel.

Secondly, Iran would probably retaliate with missiles into Israel, and maybe Iraq.

Lastly, what would the rest of the Muslim world do? Most importantly, what would happen in Pakistan? Musharaff isn't exactly the most popular person and is basically kept in power by the military. What would happen if the military gets really pissed at his pro west stance and revolts? Do we now we have another Muslim theocracy? And a theocracy with nuclear missles that can reach Iraq?

We've got to be very careful here. Things could easily get way out of control.
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Old 02-03-2006, 09:30 PM   #10
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Also keep in mind that China & Russia are Irans allys, and Putin doesn't really care for Bush all that much.
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Old 02-04-2006, 12:24 PM   #11
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iran will not directly touch iraq... that would DEFINITELY cause a war with the US, and the iranian government has to know that is a losing proposition... the only thing china and russia can do is threaten to level the nuclear playing field... neither has a military that is portable or all that strong... china has numbers, but not location or transport... russia is broke, and the military isnt all that motivated... neither is a real threat in the region...

tex, range is iffy without refueling, but refueling is something the israelis can do.. the harpoon doesnt have the penetrating power of a bunker buster, so i would think an aerial assault would work better, but i simply dont know... probably a moot point anyway...

mindido, you are still fixated on oil, i see.. first, the US gets absolutely no oil from iran... second, would iran cut off its nose to spite its face?? it is wholly reliant on oil for its economy... iranian oil must flow for iranian survival, and iran uses a lot of tankers... the straits of hormuz thing has been threatened before, but has never happened.. if the iranians did block it, it could be easily unblocked if necessary...

iran has to also know that no matter what it does to lash out, it will recieve ten times or more in return... what would the rest of the muslim world do??? personally, i dont care.. i also think any impact from that would be minimal... israels neighbors might decide to have another go and get their asses kicked--again... pakistan... what have they done for us lately?? besides, india is the natural check on pakistan, not us...
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Old 02-06-2006, 05:10 PM   #12
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Tensions keep escalating. Iran has now told the IAEA to remove all cameras from its facilities.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060206/...NlYwMlJVRPUCUl
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Old 02-07-2006, 12:20 PM   #13
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Guess I'll put this here. I was listening to CNBC last night and they were interviewing Matthew Simmons and some other guy about the potential effects if this Iranian situation gets out of control. Simmons had an interesting evaluation. He suggested that, during the last two supply shocks (1973 and 1979) oil prices tripled within three months.

Yikes! At todays prices that would put oil at around $200 per barrel or about $10 per gallon. Want to see an economy collapse fast?
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Old 02-07-2006, 12:36 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Texan
I say we sale a few long range bombers to our little jew buddies and let them take care of this.
Tex from what I saw on the news last night (sorry, can't remember which network) it's not that easy. Some military guy was saying that Iran's nuke program is all underground in many places. This wouldn't be a cruise missle war. We're talking gound toops. Let's face it, right now there is less enthusiasm (and resources) for another adventure in the sand.

I'm also not a huge fan of using Israel. They seem like that girlfriend who's always there when you want to help her, but "out with my girlfriends" when you need something.
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Old 02-07-2006, 02:04 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Preferred User
it's not that easy. Some military guy was saying that Iran's nuke program is all underground in many places. This wouldn't be a cruise missle war. We're talking gound toops.
Preferred,

You are correct. Iran has learned a lot from the Israeli attack on Iraq years ago. Primary sensitive research facilities have been buried deep, very deep (requiring more than a few bunker busters to even get close to them). Other facilities were never revealed to the IAEA while others are mobile. I saw some military type the other day discussing this and he basically said this was a "nightmare" for targeting.

Quote:
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I'm also not a huge fan of using Israel. They seem like that girlfriend who's always there when you want to help her, but "out with my girlfriends" when you need something.
More than likely, Israel will be the first to hit Iran (they have the most to lose with a nuclear Iran). The real question is, what happens after that? If the muslim world is so pissed off over a few Danish cartoons, what will they do when something happens that really is provocative?
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Old 02-07-2006, 02:13 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mindido
The real question is, what happens after that? If the muslim world is so pissed off over a few Danish cartoons, what will they do when something happens that really is provocative?
I've thought the US foreign policy in the mid east has consistently been a disaster. I'm not in favor of our thinly veiled oil-driven "we-love-democracy" hypocracy, but I have some of Tex in me. It can't be all carrot and no stick. The fundamentalist Muslims have had the same basic approach for over 1,000 years. They have allah on their side, and I think it's quite a bit worse than the religious fundies who run the US these days. These guys have justified whatever they've wanted to do, and I don't trust them with nukes.
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Old 02-07-2006, 02:49 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Preferred User
I've thought the US foreign policy in the mid east has consistently been a disaster. I'm not in favor of our thinly veiled oil-driven "we-love-democracy" hypocracy, but I have some of Tex in me. It can't be all carrot and no stick.
I have to agree, our foreign policy in the region has never been very good at making many friends over there. I think thats exactly what we're seeing now. And, given our heavy reliance on oil from the region, I think we're about to see some fairly major payback.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Preferred User
The fundamentalist Muslims have had the same basic approach for over 1,000 years. They have allah on their side, and I think it's quite a bit worse than the religious fundies who run the US these days. These guys have justified whatever they've wanted to do, and I don't trust them with nukes.
No doubt about that. The problem is that Pakistan does have nukes and their leader (Mushafaff) is a strongman that isn't well liked in his own country but is a supporter of the west. From what I understand, the only thing keeping him in power is his military. If they decide to turn on him (certainly a possibility) we would probably see an Islamic theocracy (with nukes) replace him. If that isn't everyones worst nightmare, I don't know what is.
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Old 02-07-2006, 08:40 PM   #18
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iran never got its ass kicked during or as a result of the two aforementioned shortages... they will this time... there is no history to fall back on when this one blows up... whatever happens, happens, and iran will definitely be on the losing end...

keep in mind that this isnt about friends, it is about interests... oil and freedom fall into this category.... also, if anyone here thinks israel or the US couldnt dig out and destroy any iranian anything with ordnance carried on a single airplane, they are delusional... there are limits to how deep one can dig, and there are ALWAYS weak spots... there is also the nuclear (nuculer) option, which SHOULD be on the table...
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Old 02-08-2006, 01:10 AM   #19
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Hell, I don't know. This Ahmanedijad guy (I know I spelled his name wrong) freaks me out. Maybe every western nation should get their militaries and make sure these psychos never obtain power again. God, I feel terrible. I'm starting to become a hawk.
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Old 02-08-2006, 08:35 AM   #20
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the sad thing is that sometimes war is necessary... ugly, but necessary...

more fuel to the fire--the chief diaperhead of iran has announced a contest... the subject is cartoons about the holocaust (which, according to him, never happened).. if anyone rises to the challenge, things might just get interesting...

perhaps the civilized world should start indiscriminately attacking arabs and burning arab businesses and embassies... maybe a few targeted death threats thrown in for good measure... i have always stated that the rules of any conflict should be the same for both sides, and what one side views as legit should be fully embraced by the other... they started it, i wouldnt be opposed to an object lesson where they become the targets of the set of rules they created...
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