another hurricane...

[mindido]

lumbaugh,

At least Ice's prediction was better than yours of "the season is done, no more...". See what an education can do for you?

 

[cableguy]

nano,

damn, a man who cant read telling me i need an education... what DID i miss while in school??? please reference post #13 in this very thread for that very item...

because you cant read so well, the short version is this: i altered my previous remark to add the words "of signifigance." "of signifigance was further defined in a later post to mean a storm causing major damage and/or loss of life...

bottom line, there were more named storms, but they did nothing... as such, they are insignifigant and meaningless... (insignifigant and meaningless are synonyms, and i figure you may have heard of one or the other)

 

[Iceberg]

i quit reading the realclimate stuff a while back, because it simply is a rehash of previously stated things, and it is based on a premise that i do not accept...

So, since it is based on the premise of proper scientific analysis, you cannot accept that? You cannot accept the facts? Is that what you're saying?

 

[cableguy]

ah, but it isnt... it is based on preconcieved notions of those who fund this research and of those who hate capitalism and the USA... if you funded a scientist, and that scientist knew your feelings, what are the odds that the scientist would end up "finding" data that agrees with your worldview, especially if there was a hint at future funding??? the same can be said of me and a scientist that i might fund... proper scientific analysis would never reach a concrete conclusion from speculative data... most of your argument is based on speculative data, and therefore is neither proper, nor scientific...

the problem, you see, is that politics have entered the scientific arena... no good can come of this... there are few, if any, truly independant scientists, because without funding, a scientist is not only unemployed, but irrelavent... given the sad state of journalism, a story that incites panic gets far more coverage than a boring one about anything does, regardless of the actual importance of said boring story... why would a scientist bite the hand that feeds him?? oh, and his family, as well... why not "find" some data that might indicate some cataclysmic event that also agrees with his source of funds, and will guarrantee his name in the news, possibly some publishing opportunities, and certainly more funds to continue the "research," no matter how biased and untrue it might be... the public has a VERY short memory...

no, i can accept honesty, facts, and the truth, but the global warming argument contains nothing but a skewed interpretation of the above, never telling the whole story, making assumptions that cannot be proven or verified, and in some cases lying completely... nope, that, i can live without... the unvarnished facts proove my case, not yours... it takes signifigant FAITH and manipulation to end up at a doomsday scenario... this is your religion, ice, nothing more, nothing less...

 

[Iceberg]

ah, but it isnt... it is based on preconcieved notions of those who fund this research and of those who hate capitalism and the USA...

There's where you're dead wrong. Those scientists, myself included, do not "hate capitalism and the USA." Certain types of capitalism are criminal in nature. However, Natural Capitalism sounds great!

We also love the USA, as well as all other nations of the world, so much so that we are trying to get something done that will preserve all nations and their citizens' livelihoods.

I know you think it hurts me to say that, and it does sound funny that a Canadian nationalist would say this, but I love the US. It may not sound like it in the way that I may argue sometimes. However, it is true. (The only thing I hate about the US is the ideology of the current administration, that and the arrogance of some of their athletes.) There were few more sad, angry, and sickened about 9-11 than I, other than those who lost loved ones.

The American people are generally well-intentioned, kind, and most have their hearts in the right place. (Now, why do I have to keep repeating this???)

 

[cableguy]

ice, there i simply too much dissent over this topic to warrant doing anything rash that would have a huge negative impact on the global economy... environmentalists in general view capitalism with disgust, because it creates two things they dispise; pollution and wealth...

the elephant in the room that no one wants to mention is the group of "developing" nations that may or may not include china (for this example, a pig with a dress on is still a pig, and china is still largely a 3rd world nation).. why do these nations, ESPECIALLY china, get a pass from the enviros, who are real quick to point blaming, wagging fingers at the US... do we pollute?? absolutely, BUT, we are a huge portion of the global economy, and consume a huge amount of resources... i would be happy to compare lists that break down pollution by type and as a proportion to resources used... strangely, i have never seen such a chart... i believe that, if it existed, it would show a greatly different story than the one being shoved down our throats now..

i am against any system that puts quotas on resources or emissions... therefore, i am against kyoto and associated crap rules and regs... as for your "natural capitalism, it goes by a name i have used here many, many times before--"innovation."

 

[mindido]

Two prof's from Colorado State U. have come out with their annual forecast for the 2006 hurricane season. Given what we've just gone through, its somewhat interesting

But first, for some context, heres a summary of their 2005 projections with what actually occurred:

2005 Forecast (December)

Named Storms (9.6 yearly avg.) predicted: 11
Hurricanes (5.9 yearly avg.) predicted: 6
Intense Hurricanes (2.3 yearly avg.) Predicted: 3

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2005/nov2005/

And here's their 2006 forecast:

Named Storms (9.6 yearly avg.) predicted: 17
Hurricanes (5.9 yearly avg.) predicted: 9
Intense Hurricanes (2.3 yearly avg.) Predicted: 5

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2005/dec2005/

 

[Gatorman]

Two prof's from Colorado State U. have come out with their annual forecast for the 2006 hurricane season. Given what we've just gone through, its somewhat interesting

That's just great. Another excellent reason to relocate........

 

[mindido]

Hey Gator,

When you get a few moments could you answer a few questions, such as:

Are you still in N.O.?
Is your family there also?
Were you relocated for a while?
If you were, where did you go?
Are you working or going to school?
What are your living conditions like?
What do you think of the conditions in N.O. (if you're still there)?
Do you think N.O. will survive?
If you think it will, will it be much different or pretty much the same?

Sorry to be a bit snoopy, but it would be nice to hear from someone that actually is living through the experience.

 

[Gatorman]

Hey Gator,

When you get a few moments could you answer a few questions, such as:

Are you still in N.O.?
Is your family there also?
Were you relocated for a while?
If you were, where did you go?
Are you working or going to school?
What are your living conditions like?
What do you think of the conditions in N.O. (if you're still there)?
Do you think N.O. will survive?
If you think it will, will it be much different or pretty much the same?

Sorry to be a bit snoopy, but it would be nice to hear from someone that actually is living through the experience.

OK, here's your answers:
-Yes, I'm still in New Orleans and my family is here.
-We evacuated for about 8 days to Houston.
-We live on the west side of the city and fortunately didn't suffer much damage so were able to return pretty quickly.
-I work here and my business has been significantly affected.
-My personal living conditions are fine but large parts of the city were basically destroyed (due more to the flooding rather than the hurricane, itself). Utilities have not been restored to probably 50% of New Orleans proper. Recent estimates are that approx. 100,000 people have returned to Orleans Parish (basically, the City of New Orleans) out of a pre-Katrina population of about 475,000.
-I think that New Orleans will be rebuilt to some degree but a concise plan still has not been determined. Fortunately, the Central Business Districe, the French Quarter and the Uptown area all emerged relatively unscathed so there is a good base for reconstruction. Due to the large number of homes and apartments that were damaged, many people cannot return because there's nowhere for them to live. FEMA is finally delivering trailers and installing them both in front of homes and in newly created "FEMAvilles." The city is crawling with contractors from all over the country. Labor rates and material costs have escalated. Alot of businesses have not reopened either because of damage, lack of workers, or because it doesn't make sense due to the reduced size of the population. It's a real "Catch 22." With only about 60 flights a day (versus 175 before the hurricane) tourism is down and business people can't fly very easily (and can't get their clients in and out). People are afraid to rebuild until they're assured that the levee system is properly repaired and that their neighbors will also rebuild. It probably doesn't make economic sense to rebuild some areas of the city but obviously that's a very unpopular approach. Alot of people (around 50%) didn't have flood insurance and most likely can't afford to rebuild.
-As time elapses a significant number of "evacuees" will reestablish in other parts of the country and probably won't return. Trust me, that number is both professionals and the "undesirables." And a good number of people relocated to the surrounding areas that weren't as badly affected and will probably stay there. Then again, New Orleanians are an odd bunch. Despite the problems in the city a good number want to come back. Some because it's "home" and nowhere else compares, some because it's the only thing they know, etc. It's a mix of those who want to work and rebuild the city and those that want to continue sponging off the government.
-In summary, I think that the continued lack of cooperation by local, state and federal officials will drag out the whole process. It's going to be very expensive, time-consuming (probably 10-15 years) and probably won't be executed very well. In the end, the city will rebuild but it'll be a patchwork effort that will result in a smaller city of around 250,000 people. It's still a very fluid situation. I'm not sure if I want to stay........

 

[mindido]

Gator,

Interesting analysis. As I know I've said before in one of these threads, I've really had some good times in N.O. and am somewhat torn about what to do with that town. For certain, the port, French Quarter, business district and St. Charles Ave. (I think thats its name) should be preserved (at the least) but, given the geology of the city and those hurricane forecasts, I don't think it makes a lot of sense to rebuild it the way it was.

What is the feeling down there?

 

[Gatorman]

Mindido, there's a whole gamut of feelings, opinions and proposals. I think the prevailing sentiment among homeowners and businesspeople is to "wait and see" (particularly in the most heavily damaged areas). Unfortunately, what people would like to see happen probably won't jibe with what is economically prudent.....

 

[mindido]

Gator,

Saw on the news last night that Mayor Nagin and the feds were all crowing about an additional $3 billion appropriated just for the levees. Then I saw on PBS an interview with the guy in charge who said that some of the levees (but not all of them) will be reinforced and brought to a height of 17 ft. This leaves me somewhat perplexed. Given that the storm surge along the MS coast reached 30 ft. to 35 ft. at some locations, it sounds like a 17 ft. levee may be a bit inadequate. Or am I missing something here?

 

[Gatorman]

Naw Mindido, you're not missing much. New Orleans is somewhat inland and therefore a little less likely to get as great a storm surge as the Mississippi Gulf Coast but the 17 foot levees are only intended to protect against a maximum Category 3 hurricane (the same level as before Katrina). The cost of constructing levees able to withstand the estimated surge from a Cat 5 hurricane is astronomical and it takes decades to properly construct them. The level of protection question is a big reason why so many homeowners and businesses are reluctant to rebuild. They're concerned about what might happen during next year's hurricane season (or the one after that). Given the fact that we're in the middle of a particularly nasty 10 to 15 year hurricane cycle, the concerns are very justified.

 

[mindido]

Gator,

So, if the $3 billion is only to get the levees back to (a bit better) than pre Katrina levels, then how many people/businesses are going to feel confident enough to come back?

Seems like a lot of people are having the same concerns as you. And by the way, what will it take for you to finally leave?

 

[Iceberg]

Uh-oh. Cha-ching! Forecast correct!

"Tropical storm Zeta stirs in Atlantic":

http://www.cbc.ca/story/world/national/2005/12/30/storm-zeta051230.html

"Tropical storm Zeta has formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, a month after the official end of the hurricane season."

 

[Gowar]

ROFLCOPTER, BUMPED

 

[cableguy]

yep, and please provide the damage estimates and the death toll... for that matter, how many actual living, breathing humans have set eyes on it??? if you exclude those who fly out to hurricanes for their jobs or for thrills, im going to guess your numbers for all three to be hovering right about at ZERO...

 

[mindido]

Well, its been a bit over 6 months since Katrina hit and there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of good news coming from the area. Hey Gator! Care to give us an update on how things are going down there??

Anyway, I did find this quite interesting:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/usatoday/20...2wB4hdq24cA;_ylu=X3oDMTA4NGRzMjRtBHNlYwMxNjk5

It seems some fisherman from the area, frustrated with losing his home and job, created a T shirt and started giving them to people at Carnivale. Dept. of Homeland Security somehow found out about it and gave the guy a $75 ticket.

One would think they (DHS) would have more pressing things to do.

 

[mindido]

Jeez, its been awhile since we had any updates on this subject. Anyway, it seems there's some good new on the subject for once.

A jury has awarded a couple several million $$ in punitive damages from State Farm Insurance!

http://www.cnn.com/2007/LAW/01/11/katrina.insurance.ap/index.html

Maybe some of those people will finally start getting some of the money they're owed.